BEIRUT (AP) Hezbollah has long been considered Irans first line of defense in case of a war with Israel. But since Israel launched its massive barrage against Iran this week, the Lebanese militant group has stayed out of the fray.
A network of powerful Iran-backed militias in Iraq has also remained mostly quiet even though Israel allegedly used Iraqs airspace, in part, to carry out the attacks.
Domestic political concerns, as well as tough losses suffered in nearly two years of regional conflicts and upheavals, appear to have led these Iran allies to take a back seat in the latest round convulsing the region.
The Axis of Resistance
Hezbollah was formed with Iranian support in the early 1980s as a guerilla force fighting against Israels occupation of southern Lebanon at the time.
The militant group helped push Israel out of Lebanon and built its arsenal over the ensuing decades, becoming a powerful regional force and the centerpiece of a cluster of Iranian-backed factions and governments known as the Axis of Resistance .
The allies also include Iraqi Shiite militias and Yemens Houthi rebels, as well as the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
At one point, Hezbollah was believed to have some 150,000 rockets and missiles, and the groups former leader, Hassan Nasrallah once boasted of having 100,000 fighters.
Seeking to aid its ally Hamas in the aftermath of the Palestinian militants Oct. 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel and Israels offensive in Gaza, Hezbollah began launching rockets across the border.
That drew Israeli airstrikes and shelling, and the exchanges escalated into full-scale war last September. Israel inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah, killing Nasrallah and other top leaders and destroying much of its arsenal, before a U.S.-negotiated ceasefire halted that conflict last November. Israel continues to occupy parts of southern Lebanon and to carry out near-daily airstrikes .
For their part, the Iraqi militias occasionally struck bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria, while Yemens Houthis fired at vessels in the Red Sea, a crucial global trade route, and began targeting Israel.
Condolences to Iran, condemnations of Israel
Hezbollah and its leader Naim Kassem have condemned Israels attacks and offered condolences for the senior Iranian officers who were killed.
But Kassem did not suggest Hezbollah would take part in any retaliation against Israel.
Iraqs Kataib Hezbollah militia a separate group from Lebanons Hezbollah released a statement saying it was deeply regrettable that Israel allegedly fired at Iran from Iraqi airspace, something that Baghdad complained to the U.N. Security Council over.
The Iraqi militia called on the Baghdad government to urgently expel hostile forces from the country, a reference to U.S. troops in Iraq as part of the fight against the militant Islamic State group, but made no threat of force.
Hezbollah was weakened by last years fighting and after losing a major supply route for Iranian weapons with the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad , a key ally, in a lightning rebel offensive in December.
Hezbollah has been degraded on the strategic level while cut off from supply chains in Syria, said Andreas Krieg, a military analyst and associate professor at Kings College London.
A changing attitude to Iran
Many Hezbollah members believe they were sacrificed for Irans greater regional interests since Hamas attack on Israel triggered the latest Israel-Hamas war, and want to focus on Lebanon-centric interests rather than defending Iran, Krieg said.
Still, Qassem Qassir, a Lebanese analyst close to Hezbollah, said a role for the militant group in the Israel-Iran conflict should not be ruled out.
This depends on political and field developments, he said. Anything is possible.
Both the Houthis and the Iraqi militias lack the strategic deep strike capability against Israel that Hezbollah once had, Krieg said.
Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London, said Iraqs Iran-allied militias have all along tried to avoid pulling their country into a major conflict.
Unlike Hezbollah, whose military wing has operated as a non-state actor in Lebanon - although its political wing is part of the government - the main Iraqi militias are members of a coalition of groups that are officially part of the state defense forces.
Things in Iraq are good for them right now, theyre connected to the state - theyre benefitting politically, economically, Mansour said. And also theyve seen whats happened to Iran, to Hezbollah and theyre concerned that Israel will turn on them as well.
That leaves the Houthis as the likely new hub in the Axis of Resistance, Krieg said. But he said the group isnt strong enough and too geographically removed to strategically harm Israel beyond the rebels sporadic missile attacks.
Krieg said the perception that the axis members were proxies fully controlled by Iran was always mistaken, but now the ties have loosened further.
It is not really an axis anymore as (much as) a loose network where everyone largely is occupied with its own survival, he said.
贝鲁特（美联社）——长期以来，**真主党**一直被视为伊朗在与以色列发生战争时的第一道防线。但自本周以色列对伊朗发动大规模袭击以来，这个黎巴嫩武装组织却始终置身事外。
尽管以色列据称部分利用了伊拉克领空发动袭击，但伊拉克境内由伊朗支持的强大民兵组织网络仍基本保持沉默。
国内政治考量，加上近两年地区冲突与动荡中遭受的惨重损失，似乎已导致伊朗的这些盟友在最新一轮地区动荡中退居次要地位。
“抵抗轴心”
真主党于20世纪80年代初在伊朗的支持下成立，当时是一支反抗以色列占领黎巴嫩南部地区的游击队力量。
该武装组织曾协助将以色列逐出黎巴嫩，并在随后数十年间不断扩充军备，逐渐发展成为一支强大的地区力量，成为伊朗支持的多个派系和政府组成的“抵抗轴心”核心。
盟友还包括伊拉克什叶派民兵组织、也门胡塞武装以及巴勒斯坦激进组织哈马斯。
真主党一度被认为拥有约15万枚火箭弹和导弹，其前领导人**哈桑·纳斯鲁拉**曾宣称麾下有10万名武装人员。
在巴勒斯坦武装组织哈马斯于2023年10月7日袭击以色列南部、以色列随后对加沙发动攻势后，黎巴嫩真主党为支援其盟友哈马斯，开始向边境地区发射火箭弹。
这引发了以色列的空袭和炮击，双方的交火于去年9月升级为全面战争。以色列对真主党造成重创，击毙了纳斯鲁拉等高层领导人并摧毁其大量武器装备，直至去年11月美国斡旋的停火协议终止了这场冲突。目前以色列仍占领黎巴嫩南部部分地区，并几乎每日实施空袭行动。
伊拉克民兵组织方面，偶尔会袭击驻有美军的伊拉克和叙利亚基地；而也门的胡塞武装则向红海——这一全球重要贸易航道上的船只开火，并开始将以色列列为打击目标。
向伊朗致哀，谴责以色列
黎巴嫩真主党及其领导人纳伊姆·卡西姆谴责了以色列的袭击，并对遇害的伊朗高级军官表示哀悼。
但卡西姆并未表示真主党会参与对以色列的任何报复行动。
伊拉克真主党旅（与黎巴嫩真主党无关的独立组织）发表声明称，以色列涉嫌从伊拉克领空向伊朗发动袭击的行为“令人深感遗憾”，巴格达当局已就此向联合国安理会提出抗议。
伊拉克民兵组织呼吁巴格达政府“立即驱逐该国境内的敌对势力”——此处所指为参与打击极端组织“伊斯兰国”行动的驻伊美军，但未发出武力威胁。
去年12月，随着关键盟友叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德在叛军闪电攻势中倒台，真主党失去了一条伊朗武器的重要补给路线，加之去年的战斗损耗，其力量遭到削弱。
伦敦国王学院军事分析师、副教授安德烈亚斯·克里格表示：“真主党在战略层面已被削弱，同时其在叙利亚的供应链也被切断。”
对伊朗态度的转变
克里格表示，许多真主党成员认为，自哈马斯袭击以色列引发最新一轮巴以冲突以来，他们��为伊朗更大的地区利益作出了牺牲��，并希望专注于��以黎巴嫩为核心��的利益，而非保卫伊朗。
不过，与真主党关系密切的黎巴嫩分析师卡西姆·卡西尔表示，不应排除该武装组织在以色列-伊朗冲突中发挥作用。
他表示：“这取决于政治局势和实地进展，一切皆有可能。”
克里格表示：“胡塞武装和伊拉克民兵组织都不具备真主党曾经拥有的对以色列实施战略纵深打击的能力。”
伦敦智库查塔姆研究所高级研究员雷纳德·曼苏尔表示，伊拉克境内亲伊朗的民兵组织始终试图避免将本国卷入大规模冲突。
与真主党不同（其军事分支在黎巴嫩作为非国家行为体活动，尽管其政治分支参与政府），伊拉克主要民兵组织是一个团体联盟的成员，这些团体正式隶属于国家国防力量。
曼苏尔表示："目前伊拉克的局势对他们有利，他们与国家机构关系密切——在政治和经济上都获得了利益。此外，他们也目睹了伊朗和真主党的遭遇，因此担心以色列同样会对他们采取行动。"
克里格表示，这使得胡塞武装很可能成为“抵抗轴心”的新枢纽。但他指出，该组织实力不足，且地理位置偏远，除了偶尔发动导弹袭击外，难以对以色列造成战略性伤害。
克里格表示，有关“轴心”成员是伊朗完全控制的代理人的看法一直是错误的，而现在这种联系已进一步减弱。
他表示：“这实际上已不再是一个紧密的轴心，而更像是一个松散的联盟，其中各方主要忙于自身的生存。”
